Jerusalem: When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel's objectives following recent strikes on Iran, he emphasized targeting Iran's nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles as pivotal to Israel's national security. However, the nature and targets of the latest air strikes suggest broader ambitions beyond just neutralizing immediate threats.
According to France24.com, Israeli forces conducted precise strikes on Sunday, hitting key Iranian government buildings, including the foreign ministry, the defense ministry, and police headquarters in Tehran. Additionally, a significant strike was carried out on the South Pars gas field, the largest natural gas reservoir globally, on Saturday.
The strategic selection of these targets aligns with Israel's incremental approach to addressing the perceived threat from Iran. As Clive Jones, a professor at Durham University, explains, Israel's initial focus is on impeding Iran's nuclear advancements. Following this, the strategy extends to incapacitating military delivery systems and the leadership overseeing them, which explains the targeting of facilities linked to Iran's military fuel supply.
Middle East expert Filippo Dionigi suggests that such attacks may also serve to destabilize Iran's internal command structures, potentially subverting its ability to respond effectively. This approach fits into Israel's broader strategy, known as the Octopus Doctrine, which was established by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in 2021. As Veronika Poniscjakova from Portsmouth University describes, this doctrine targets the regime in Iran directly, rather than its proxy groups across the Middle East.
Some analysts, like Shahin Modarres of the International Team for the Study of Security Verona, propose that Israel's actions may aim at inciting regime collapse by fueling social unrest. Targeting energy infrastructures can lead to widespread power outages, undermining public confidence in the Iranian government.
The Iranian health ministry reports significant civilian casualties, with 90 percent of victims being non-combatants. Strikes on political institutions and media outlets are seen as signals encouraging opposition groups within Iran to challenge the regime, a notion supported by Netanyahu's public appeal to the Iranian populace to seek freedom.
Despite these efforts, the potential for Israel's actions to backfire exists. External interference often bolsters national unity against perceived aggressors, potentially strengthening the regime's position. This dynamic poses a significant risk for Netanyahu, whose broader goals include both dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities and possibly instigating regime change.
As the conflict unfolds, the potential for greater escalation and increased civilian casualties looms, raising political stakes for Netanyahu's administration. The outcome of this military engagement could either reinforce his political standing or mark a substantial political setback, depending on Israel's ability to achieve its strategic aims without provoking unintended consequences.