Washington: When Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets with former President Donald Trump at the White House, discussions are expected to center around disarming Iran-allied militias in Iraq, a topic that carries significant weight amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. These militias, often referred to as the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF), were originally formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State and now comprise approximately 240,000 fighters with an annual budget of around $3.5 billion.
According to Deutsche Welle, some factions within the PMF are aligned with Iran's "Axis of Resistance," which includes groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. These factions have been implicated in attacks on US bases across the Middle East. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the issue during a recent visit to the United Arab Emirates, noting the challenge of ending hostilities while Iranian proxies continue their activities.
The US has increased its pressure on Iraq to address this situation by designating certain PMF factions as "foreign terrorist organizations," imposing sanctions, and threatening to withhold oil revenues. In response, the Iraqi government has committed to bringing all arms under state control by the end of September and prosecuting non-compliant groups.
In May, prominent cleric Muqtada al-Sadr instructed his faction, Saraya al-Salam, to surrender their weapons, followed by similar commitments from Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali. However, doubts persist about the sincerity of these moves, with some viewing them as mere rebranding exercises. Asaib Ahl al-Haq, known for its past attacks on US forces, continues to have a reputation for various criminal activities.
Many PMF groups hold significant political power within Iraq, with their affiliated parties controlling a substantial portion of the parliament. This political influence complicates any efforts to disarm these groups, as external observers may be necessary to ensure compliance.
While some analysts see political engagement as a positive shift for groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, others, such as Kataib Hezbollah, remain steadfast in their resistance activities. Iran's strategic interests in Iraq are likely influencing these developments, as it seeks to maintain its influence in the region through various means.
Despite these efforts, the likelihood of achieving the US's goal of neutralizing Iran's allies in Iraq remains uncertain. The persistent pro-Iran sentiment among certain Iraqi groups and the broader populace continues to pose challenges to sustained stability and peace in the region.
The pledges to disarm, while potentially signaling a less confrontational future, still leave Iraq within Iran's sphere of influence. The issue of accountability for past crimes committed by these militias remains unresolved, raising questions about the long-term implications of normalizing groups with such violent histories.